Portfolios of Multiple Assets

Portfolios of Multiple Assets

Sukrit Mittal Franklin Templeton Investments

Outline

  1. From two assets to many
  2. Portfolio return and risk (general case)
  3. Geometry of diversification
  4. Three risky securities
  5. Minimum variance portfolio (MVP)
  6. Minimum variance set and line
  7. Introducing the market portfolio
  8. Exercises

1. From Two Assets to Many

The two-asset case taught us geometry.

The multi-asset case teaches us structure.

Nothing fundamentally new appears.

What changes is notation—and discipline.

Why This Matters

Real portfolios:

2. Portfolio Return: General Case

Let:

Portfolio return:

\[ R_p = w^\top R \]

Budget constraint:

\[ \sum_{i=1}^n w_i = 1 \]

Expected Return

Let \(\mu = \mathbb{E}[R]\) be the vector of expected returns.

Then:

\[ \mathbb{E}[R_p] = w^\top \mu = \sum_{i=1}^n w_i \mu_i \]

Interpretation:

Example: Three-Asset Portfolio

Suppose:

Portfolio expected return: \[ \mu_p = 0.3(0.08) + 0.5(0.12) + 0.2(0.15) = 0.024 + 0.060 + 0.030 = 0.114 = 11.4\% \]

3. Portfolio Risk: Variance

Let \(\Sigma\) be the covariance matrix:

\[ \Sigma_{ij} = \text{Cov}(R_i, R_j) \]

Portfolio variance:

\[ \sigma_p^2 = w^\top \Sigma w = \sum_{i=1}^n \sum_{j=1}^n w_i w_j \Sigma_{ij} \]

This single quadratic form drives modern portfolio theory.

Expanded form:

\[ \sigma_p^2 = \sum_{i=1}^n w_i^2 \sigma_i^2 + \sum_{i=1}^n \sum_{j \neq i} w_i w_j \text{Cov}(R_i, R_j) \]

The cross terms dominate for large \(n\).

Properties of the Covariance Matrix

Symmetric: \(\Sigma_{ij} = \Sigma_{ji}\)

Positive semi-definite: \(w^\top \Sigma w \geq 0\) for all \(w\)

Invertible (usually): \(\Sigma^{-1}\) exists

Numerical Example: Three-Asset Covariance

Consider the covariance matrix:

\[ \Sigma = \begin{pmatrix} 0.04 & 0.01 & 0.02 \\ 0.01 & 0.09 & 0.03 \\ 0.02 & 0.03 & 0.16 \end{pmatrix} \]

For \(w = (0.3, 0.5, 0.2)^\top\):

\[ \sigma_p^2 = w^\top \Sigma w = 0.3^2(0.04) + 0.5^2(0.09) + 0.2^2(0.16) = 0.0439 \]

Therefore: \(\sigma_p = \sqrt{0.0439} = 20.95\%\)

The diversification benefit is embedded in the covariances.

4. Geometry of Diversification

Expected return is linear in \(w\). Variance is quadratic in \(w\).

Why Diversification Works

As \(n\) increases:

For equally weighted portfolios (\(w_i = 1/n\)):

\[ \sigma_p^2 = \frac{1}{n} \bar{\sigma}^2 + \frac{n-1}{n} \bar{\text{Cov}} \]

Where:

As \(n \to \infty\):

\[ \sigma_p^2 \to \bar{\text{Cov}} \]

Interpretation: Diversification eliminates idiosyncratic risk. Only systematic (correlated) risk remains.

Numerical Example: Diversification Benefits

Consider \(n\) assets with:

Equally weighted portfolio variance:

\(n\) \(\sigma_p^2\) \(\sigma_p\) Reduction
1 0.0900 30.00% 0%
5 0.0432 20.78% 31%
10 0.0373 19.33% 36%
50 0.0326 18.07% 40%
\(\infty\) 0.0315 17.75% 41%

Risk decreases rapidly at first, then asymptotes. This is the power—and limit—of diversification.

Diversification Benefits:

Diversification Benefits

Figure: Portfolio risk decreases as the number of assets increases, but approaches a limit (systematic risk) that cannot be diversified away.

5. Three Risky Securities

With three risky assets:

Yet the efficient set collapses to a curve.

More choice does not mean more freedom.

Three-Asset Portfolio Space:

Three-Asset Portfolio Space

Figure: Portfolio possibilities in three-asset space. The simplex shows all valid portfolios where weights sum to 1. Color indicates expected return.

Return and Risk

For three assets:

\[ R_p = w_1R_1 + w_2R_2 + w_3R_3 \]

\[ \sigma_p^2 = w^\top \Sigma w \]

With \(w_1 + w_2 + w_3 = 1\).

Same equations. Higher dimension.

6. Minimum Variance Portfolio (MVP)

The minimum variance portfolio solves:

\[ \min_w \quad w^\top \Sigma w \]

subject to:

\[ u^\top w = 1 \]

Expected returns play no role here.

Risk comes first.

Why find the MVP?

Derivation via Lagrange Multipliers

Step 1: Form the Lagrangian

\[ \mathcal{L}(w,\lambda) = w^\top \Sigma w + \lambda(u^\top w - 1) \]

Where:

Step 2: Take first-order conditions

Differentiate with respect to \(w\):

\[ \frac{\partial \mathcal{L}}{\partial w} = 2\Sigma w + \lambda u = 0 \]

Differentiate with respect to \(\lambda\):

\[ \frac{\partial \mathcal{L}}{\partial \lambda} = u^\top w - 1 = 0 \]

This is linear algebra, not magic.

Solving for MVP Weights

From the first condition:

\[ 2\Sigma w + \lambda u = 0 \]

Rearranging:

\[ \Sigma w = -\frac{\lambda}{2} u \]

Multiply both sides by \(\Sigma^{-1}\):

\[ w = -\frac{\lambda}{2} \Sigma^{-1} u \]

Apply the constraint \(u^\top w = 1\):

\[ u^\top w = -\frac{\lambda}{2} u^\top \Sigma^{-1} u = 1 \]

Solve for \(\lambda\):

\[ \lambda = -\frac{2}{u^\top \Sigma^{-1} u} \]

Substitute back:

\[ \boxed{w^{\text{MVP}} = \frac{\Sigma^{-1}u}{u^\top \Sigma^{-1}u}} \]

This formula appears everywhere for a reason.

Properties of the MVP

  1. Weights sum to one (by construction)

  2. Unique (if \(\Sigma\) is invertible)

  3. Does not depend on expected returns

    • Pure risk minimization
    • No assumptions about investor preferences
  4. Computationally stable (usually)

    • Depends only on covariance matrix
    • Less sensitive to estimation error than mean-variance portfolios

Numerical Example: Three-Asset MVP

Using our previous covariance matrix:

\[ \Sigma = \begin{pmatrix} 0.04 & 0.01 & 0.02 \\ 0.01 & 0.09 & 0.03 \\ 0.02 & 0.03 & 0.16 \end{pmatrix} \]

First compute \(\Sigma^{-1}\):

\[ \Sigma^{-1} \approx \begin{pmatrix} 28.09 & -2.25 & -2.81 \\ -2.25 & 12.36 & -0.56 \\ -2.81 & -0.56 & 7.30 \end{pmatrix} \]

Then:

\[ \Sigma^{-1}u = \begin{pmatrix} 23.03 \\ 9.55 \\ 3.93 \end{pmatrix}, \quad u^\top \Sigma^{-1}u = 36.51 \]

MVP weights:

\[ w^{\text{MVP}} = \begin{pmatrix} 0.631 \\ 0.262 \\ 0.108 \end{pmatrix} \]

Portfolio variance: \(\sigma_{\text{MVP}}^2 = 0.0274\), so \(\sigma_{\text{MVP}} = 16.55\%\)

Interpretation: Most weight in Asset 1 (lowest variance), least in Asset 3 (highest variance).

7. Minimum Variance Set and Line

As we vary expected return constraints:

\[ w^\top \mu = \mu_p \]

we obtain a family of portfolios.

Their image in \((\sigma, \mu)\) space forms the minimum variance frontier.

This is the set of all portfolios with minimum variance for each target return.

Optimization Problem for Target Return

For a target expected return \(\mu_p\), solve:

\[ \min_w \quad w^\top \Sigma w \]

subject to:

\[ u^\top w = 1, \quad w^\top \mu = \mu_p \]

Lagrangian:

\[ \mathcal{L}(w,\lambda_1,\lambda_2) = w^\top \Sigma w + \lambda_1(u^\top w - 1) + \lambda_2(w^\top \mu - \mu_p) \]

First-order condition:

\[ 2\Sigma w + \lambda_1 u + \lambda_2 \mu = 0 \]

Solving this system yields the entire efficient frontier.

General Solution

The solution has the form:

\[ w^*(\mu_p) = w^{\text{MVP}} + \lambda(\mu_p) \cdot w^{\text{diff}} \]

Where:

Key insight: All efficient portfolios are combinations of two "basis" portfolios.

This is the two-fund theorem for risky assets.

Minimum Variance Line

Without a risk-free asset:

Efficiency is selective.

Graphical representation:

Efficient Frontier

Figure: The efficient frontier shows the minimum risk for each level of return. Only the upper branch (above MVP) is efficient.

8. Adding the Risk-Free Asset

Once a risk-free asset is available:

This line dominates all others.

Geometry collapses again.

Capital Allocation Line with Tangency Portfolio:

CAL with Tangency Portfolio

Figure: The CAL (blue line) is tangent to the efficient frontier at the tangency portfolio. This portfolio has the highest Sharpe ratio among all risky portfolios.

Capital Allocation Line (CAL) - Revisited

With \(n\) risky assets and a risk-free asset:

The CAL equation:

\[ \mu_p = R_f + \frac{\mu_M - R_f}{\sigma_M} \sigma_p \]

Where \(M\) is the market portfolio (the tangency portfolio).

Key result: The Capital Allocation Line dominates all other portfolios in the risky asset space.

Every investor should hold:

  1. The market portfolio (risky assets)
  2. The risk-free asset

Only the proportions differ based on risk preferences.

9. Market Portfolio

The market portfolio is:

It solves:

\[ \max_w \quad \frac{w^\top \mu - R_f}{\sqrt{w^\top \Sigma w}} \]

subject to:

\[ u^\top w = 1 \]

This is the Sharpe ratio maximization problem.

Derivation of Market Portfolio

Equivalently, we can solve the Sharpe ratio maximization directly:

\[ \max_w \quad \frac{w^\top \mu - R_f}{\sqrt{w^\top \Sigma w}} \]

subject to:

\[ u^\top w = 1 \]

Lagrangian:

\[ \mathcal{L} = \frac{w^\top \mu - R_f}{\sqrt{w^\top \Sigma w}} + \lambda(u^\top w - 1) \]

First-order condition:

\[ \frac{1}{\sqrt{w^\top \Sigma w}}[\mu - \frac{(w^\top \mu - R_f)}{w^\top \Sigma w}\Sigma w] + \lambda u = 0 \]

Simplifying and rearranging (with too much effort):

\[ \Sigma w \propto \mu - R_f u \]

With the budget constraint applied, this yields:

\[ w^{\text{M}} = \frac{\Sigma^{-1}(\mu - R_fu)}{u^\top \Sigma^{-1}(\mu - R_fu)} \]

Characterization of the Market Portfolio

After applying constraints and simplifying:

\[ w^{\text{M}} \propto \Sigma^{-1}(\mu - R_fu) \]

With normalization:

\[ w^{\text{M}} = \frac{\Sigma^{-1}(\mu - R_fu)}{u^\top \Sigma^{-1}(\mu - R_fu)} \]

Key observations:

  1. Depends on \(\mu - R_f\) (excess returns)
  2. Inversely weighted by covariance matrix
  3. Does not depend on risk aversion

Interpretation

Numerical Example: Market Portfolio

Using our three-asset example with:

\[ \mu = \begin{pmatrix} 0.08 \\ 0.12 \\ 0.15 \end{pmatrix}, \quad R_f = 0.03 \]

\[ \Sigma^{-1} \approx \begin{pmatrix} 28.09 & -2.25 & -2.81 \\ -2.25 & 12.36 & -0.56 \\ -2.81 & -0.56 & 7.30 \end{pmatrix} \]

Compute \(\mu - R_fu\):

\[ \mu - R_fu = \begin{pmatrix} 0.05 \\ 0.09 \\ 0.12 \end{pmatrix} \]

Then:

\[ \Sigma^{-1}(\mu - R_fu) = \begin{pmatrix} 0.768 \\ 0.984 \\ 0.689 \end{pmatrix} \]

Sum: \(0.768 + 0.984 + 0.689 = 2.441\)

Market portfolio weights:

\[ w^{\text{M}} = \begin{pmatrix} 0.315 \\ 0.403 \\ 0.282 \end{pmatrix} \]

Expected return: \(\mu_M = 0.315(0.08) + 0.403(0.12) + 0.282(0.15) = 11.4\%\)

Variance: \(\sigma_M^2 = 0.0332\), so \(\sigma_M = 18.2\%\)

Sharpe ratio: \(\frac{0.114 - 0.03}{0.182} = 0.462\)

10. Exercises

Exercise 1: Computing the MVP

Given three assets with expected returns and covariance matrix:

\[ \mu = \begin{pmatrix} 0.07 \\ 0.10 \\ 0.13 \end{pmatrix}, \quad \Sigma = \begin{pmatrix} 0.09 & 0.02 & 0.01 \\ 0.02 & 0.16 & 0.03 \\ 0.01 & 0.03 & 0.25 \end{pmatrix} \]

Tasks:

  1. Compute the minimum variance portfolio weights
  2. Calculate the expected return and standard deviation of the MVP
  3. Verify that the weights sum to one
  4. Interpret the result: which asset gets the most weight and why?

Exercise 2: Efficient Frontier

Using the same three assets from Exercise 1:

Tasks:

  1. Find the portfolio with target expected return \(\mu_p = 10\%\)
  2. Calculate the variance of this portfolio
  3. Compare its risk to the MVP
  4. Is this portfolio on the efficient frontier? Explain.

Hint: Set up the Lagrangian with two constraints and solve the first-order conditions.

Exercise 3: Market Portfolio

Given \(R_f = 0.04\) and the data from Exercise 1:

Tasks:

  1. Compute the market portfolio (tangency portfolio)
  2. Calculate its expected return, variance, and Sharpe ratio
  3. Compare the market portfolio to the MVP: which has higher expected return? Which has lower risk?
  4. Explain why the market portfolio does not depend on individual risk aversion

Exercise 4: Diversification Analysis

Consider \(n\) identical assets, each with:

Tasks:

  1. Write the formula for the variance of an equally-weighted portfolio
  2. Compute portfolio variance for \(n = 2, 5, 10, 50, 100\)
  3. What is the limiting variance as \(n \to \infty\)?
  4. What percentage of risk is diversifiable? What percentage is systematic?

Hint: Use \(\sigma_p^2 = \frac{1}{n}\sigma^2 + \frac{n-1}{n}\rho\sigma^2\)

Exercise 5: Constrained Optimization

Prove that the MVP weights sum to one using the formula:

\[ w^{\text{MVP}} = \frac{\Sigma^{-1}u}{u^\top \Sigma^{-1}u} \]

Steps:

  1. Take the sum of weights: \(\sum_{i=1}^n w_i = u^\top w^{\text{MVP}}\)
  2. Substitute the MVP formula
  3. Simplify to show the result equals 1

Explain why this property is economically necessary (budget constraint).

Final Takeaways

Next lecture: We will turn these portfolio results into asset pricing theory via the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM).