Recap: Lectures 1–11

Sukrit Mittal Franklin Templeton Investments

Where we’ve been, and why it matters for what comes next.

The Big Picture

We have built a toolkit – layer by layer – for understanding how financial markets work mathematically.

Block Lectures Core question
Foundations 1–4 How do we model markets and the value of money?
Portfolio Theory 5–8 How should an investor allocate capital?
Risk Measurement 9–10 How do we quantify and manage risk?
Derivatives 11 How do we price contracts whose value derives from other assets?

Each block answers a question that the next block depends on.

Foundations (Lectures 1–4)

Lecture 1 – Financial Systems

What is a financial market, mathematically? Defined the objects of study: assets, prices, time, uncertainty. Established that finance is not storytelling – it is structure and abstraction.

Lecture 2 – A Simple Market Model

What is the simplest non-trivial market? The one-step binomial model. Two states, one period – yet rich enough to introduce no-arbitrage, the single most important principle in all of mathematical finance.

Lecture 3 – Time Value of Money

Why is $1 today worth more than $1 tomorrow? Opportunity cost, inflation, risk. Moved from simple to compound to continuous compounding – the language derivatives pricing speaks in.

Lecture 4 – Money Market

How do we price time itself? Bonds, discount factors, term structure. The yield curve encodes the market’s collective view of the future cost of money.

Portfolio Theory (Lectures 5–8)

Lecture 5 – Introduction to Portfolios

How do risk and return trade off? Defined return (simple, log), variance as risk, and the fundamental insight: you cannot earn more without accepting more risk – but you can be smart about which risks you take.

Lecture 6 – Risk-Free Asset and Optimization

What happens when you can lend and borrow at a risk-free rate? The Capital Allocation Line: every efficient portfolio is a mix of the risk-free asset and one optimal risky portfolio. Introduced constrained optimization via Lagrange multipliers.

Lecture 7 – Multi-Asset Portfolios

How does diversification work with many assets? Matrix/vector formulation. The efficient frontier as a hyperbola. Diversification doesn’t just reduce risk – it reshapes the entire opportunity set.

Lecture 8 – CAPM

How are assets priced in equilibrium? If all investors optimize, the market portfolio is the optimal risky portfolio. An asset’s expected return depends only on its systematic risk (beta), not its total risk.

Risk Measurement (Lectures 9–10)

Lecture 9 – Utility Functions

Why do different investors hold different portfolios? Expected utility theory formalizes risk aversion. Utility functions encode preferences; concavity measures how much an investor dislikes uncertainty. This is the theoretical backbone behind mean-variance analysis.

Lecture 10 – Value at Risk

How bad can it get? VaR asks: “What is my maximum loss at a given confidence level?” Three methods – parametric, historical simulation, Monte Carlo. Powerful but limited: VaR says nothing about how bad losses can be beyond the threshold.

Derivatives I (Lecture 11)

Lecture 11 – Forwards and Futures

How do you lock in a price today for a transaction tomorrow?

Forward contracts: symmetric obligations. Priced by no-arbitrage replication – construct a portfolio that exactly mimics the payoff, and the price follows. Futures add daily margining to manage counterparty risk.

Key insight: the forward price is not a forecast. It is the unique price that prevents free money.

One Concept Per Lecture – The Unique Value

Lecture The one thing to remember
1. Financial Systems Finance = mathematical structure, not intuition
2. Simple Market Model No-arbitrage – the anchor of all pricing
3. Time Value of Money Continuous compounding as the natural language
4. Money Market The yield curve prices time
5. Intro to Portfolios Risk-return is a trade-off, not a choice
6. Risk-Free + Optimization One optimal risky portfolio for everyone
7. Multi-Asset Portfolios Diversification reshapes opportunity
8. CAPM Only systematic risk is rewarded
9. Utility Functions Preferences explain behaviour
10. Value at Risk Quantify downside, but respect its limits
11. Forwards & Futures Price by replication, not prediction

The Story So Far

\[ \boxed{\text{Model a market}} \;\longrightarrow\; \boxed{\text{Price time (bonds)}} \;\longrightarrow\; \boxed{\text{Combine assets (portfolios)}} \]

\[ \longrightarrow\; \boxed{\text{Quantify risk (utility, VaR)}} \;\longrightarrow\; \boxed{\text{Price derivatives (forwards)}} \]

Every step rests on one principle: no-arbitrage.

What if we want a contract that gives us the right, but not the obligation, to trade?

Looking Ahead: Lecture 12 – Options

A forward contract is a symmetric bet: both sides are equally exposed.

But what if you could keep the upside and cut off the downside?

That is an option – and its asymmetric payoff changes everything:

No-arbitrage still rules – but the arguments become richer.